Tài liệu Working paper series the phillips curve and long-term unemployment

WORKING PAPER SERIES
NO. 441 / FEBRUARY 2005


THE PHILLIPS CURVE AND LONG-TERM UNEMPLOYMENT


by Ricardo Llaudes
CONTENTS


Abstract 4


Non-technical summary 5


1 Introduction 7


2 Evolution and studies of unemployment in
the OECD 9


2.1 Studies on long-term unemployment 11


3 Econometric model: the Phillips curve and
the NAIRU 12


3.1 Unemployment duration version of
the Phillips curve 13


3.2 Estimation issues 15


4 Empirical results 16


4.1 Main model results 16


4.2 Time path of the NAIRU 20


4.3 Confidence intervals 21


4.4 Euro area analysis 22


4.5 Implications for forecasting 24


4.5.1 Evaluating the forecasts 26


5 The role of labor market institutions 27


6 Robustness to alternative specifications 30


6.1 The wage Phillips curve 31


6.2 The effect of supply shocks 31


6.3 Changes to the signal-to-noise ratio 32


7 Conclusions 30


References 35


Tables and figures 39


European Central Bank working paper series 45


ECB
Working Paper Series No. 441 3
February 2005