Thạc Sĩ Khuôn khổ lạm phát mục tiêu có phù hợp với Việt Nam hay không

LUẬN VĂN THẠC SỸ KINH TẾ (MASTER IN PUBLIC POLICY DISSERTATION)
NĂM 2012

IS INFLATION TARGETING APPROPRIATE FOR VIETNAM?
CONTENTS
CERTIFICATION . i
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS . ii
CONTENTS . iii
ABBREVIATIONS . v
LIST OF GRAPHS vi
LIST OF TABLES vii
ABSTRACT viii
CHAPTER 1: INTRODUCTION . 1

CHAPTER 2: THEORETICAL AND EMPIRICAL OVERVIEW ON I.T . 3
2.1. Conceptual framework . 3
2.1.1. Supporting ideas for I.T . 3
2.1.2. The model of I.T 4
2.1.3. Issues in the implementation of I.T . 5
2.2. Global evidence on I.T. adoptation 6
2.2.1 Evidence supporting I.T 6
2.2.2 Evidence against I.T 8
2.3. The prerequisites of I.T 10
2.4. Experiences of inflation targeters 12
2.4.1 Experiences of industrial country inflation targeters . 12
2.4.2 Experiences of developing country inflation targeters 14
2.4.2.1 Chile . 16
2.4.2.2 South Korea 18
2.4.2.3 Brazil 20
CHAPTER 3: THE MONETARY POLICY FRAMEWORK IN VIETNAM . 23
3.1 Independence of SBV 23
3.2 Monetary policy implementation in Vietnam . 23
3.2.1 Monetary instruments 24
3.2.2 Monetary policy transmission mechanism 25
3.2.3 The strategy of monetary policy 26
3.2.4 Monetary policy effectiveness . 30

CHAPTER 4: TESTING I.T PREREQUISITES FOR VIETNAM . 33
4.1 Economic structure . 33
4.1.1 A small, open economy with liberalized capital and trade 33
4.1.2 Dollarization and goldization 35
4.1.3 Exchange rate pass-through effect . 36
4.2 Health of the financial system 37
4.3 Analytical capability of SBV 39
4.4 Central bank independence 39

CHAPTER 5: CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS 43
5.1 Conclusion 43
5.2 REER monetary policy framework is also problematic 44
5.3 Recommendations . 45
REFERENCES . 47


CHAPTER 1: INTRODUCTION
Monetary policy is one of the most important macroeconomic policies in an
economy. The prevailing monetary policy framework in Vietnam now is a mix exchange
rate peg and monetary framework. But the effectiveness of monetary policy in Vietnam
is not easy to estimate as the central bank must target several objectives, including low
inflation, rapid growth and exchange rate stability. Besides, inflation has returned to
Vietnam in recent years and makes many economists think of I.T as the best choice but
it related many choices and conditions. These are the dynamics for me to carry out this
dissertation to answer the following questions: First, is inflation targeting (I.T)
appropriate for Vietnam? Why and why not? And second, what are the implications
for Vietnam’s monetary policy framework? The dissertation uses institutional analysis
of monetary policy, case studies, descriptive statistics and results of other qualitative
researchs to answer research questions. The secondary data used are macroeconomics
fundamentals and finance data in Vietnam in the period 2000-2010.
I.T is applied in many industrial as well as developing countries and the adoption
of I.T based on specific theoretical framework and some key assumptions regarding
institutional prerequisites to using the inflation rate as a nominal anchor. There are very
few research mentioning adoption I.T in Vietnam (Le Anh Tu Packard, 2007; Mai Thu
Hien, 2007) and most of them gave general suggestions only. The objectives of the
dissertation is to comprehensively look at the theoretical and empirical evidence on I.T
to see if I.T is a really superior monetary policy regime for central banks, then examine
the prerequisites, experiences of inflation targeters and the conditions in Vietnam in
order to give policy implications for Vietnam. The dissertation finds that I.T is not a
perfect regime in both theory and practice, the success of I.T depends on the institutional
and economic conditions in individual country. The most common feature in successful
developing inflation targeters like Chile and Korea is the strict fiscal rule and central
bank independence. However, the institutional conditions in Vietnam shows that
Vietnam does not yet meet the requirements for adopting I.T.
Therefore, the dissertation finds that Vietnam’s monetary policy need
transparency, accountability, coherence and communication first. Then, the dissertation
recommends institutional reforms before adopting I.T or any other monetary policy
regime. After the conditions for conducting monetary policy have improved, the
adoption of I.T will depend on political considerations, in other words, whether the
government is willing to target inflation even at the cost of slower economic growth,
exchange rate volatility and high interest rates.