Tài liệu Impact of China’s WTO Accession on East Asia

Impact of China’s WTO Accession on East Asia


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Elena Ianchovichina and Terrie Walmsley


Abstract2


China’s WTO accession will have major implications for China and present both opportunities and
challenges for East Asia. We assess the possible channels through which China’s accession to the WTO
could affect East Asia and quantify these effects using a dynamic computable general equilibrium model.
China will be the biggest beneficiary of accession, followed by the industrialized and newly industrializing
economies (NIEs) in East Asia. However, their benefits are small relative to the size of their economies and
to the vigorous growth projected to occur in the region over the next 10 years. By contrast, developing
countries in East Asia are expected to incur small declines in real GDP and welfare as a result of China’s
accession, mainly because with the elimination of quotas on Chinese textile and apparel exports to
developed countries China will become a formidable competitor in areas in which these countries have
comparative advantage.
With WTO accession China will increase its demand for petrochemicals, electronics, machinery,
and equipment from Japan and the Newly Industrializing Economies (NIEs), and farm, timber, energy
products, and other manufactures from the developing East Asian countries. New foreign investment is
likely to flow into these expanding sectors. The overall impact on foreign investment is likely to be positive
in the NIEs, but negative for the less developed East Asian countries as a result of the contraction of these
economies’ textile and apparel sector. As China becomes a more efficient supplier of services or a more
efficient producer of high-end manufactures, its comparative advantage will shift into higher-end products.
This is good news for the poor developing economies in East Asia, but implies that the impact of China’s
WTO accession on the NIEs may change to include heightened competition in global markets.


JEL classification: F11, F15
Keywords : China, WTO accession, East Asia, General Equilibrium


World Bank Policy Research Working Paper 3109, August 2003


The Policy Research Working Paper Series disseminates the findings of work in progress to encourage the exchange of
ideas about development issues. An objective of the series is to get the findings out quickly, even if the presentations are
less than fully polished. The papers carry the names of the authors and should be cited accordingly. The findings,
interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper are entirely those of the authors. They do not necessarily
represent the view of the World Bank, its Executive Directors, or the countries they represent. Policy Research
Working Papers are available online at http://econ.worldbank.org.


1 Elena Ianchovichina is an economist at Poverty Reduction and Economic Management, Economic Policy,


World Bank, 1818 H Street, NW, Washington, D.C. 20043, tel. (202) 458-8910, fax: (202) 522-2530,
email: <a class="__cf_email__" href="http://www.cloudflare.com/email-protection" data-cfemail="5f3a363e313c373029363c3736313e1f28302d333b3d3e313471302d3871">[email protected]<script type="text/javascript">
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Terrie Walmsley is a faculty associate at the Center for Global
Trade Analysis, Purdue University and a lecturer in the Department of Economics, Sheffield University, 9
Mappin Street, S1 4DT Sheffield, UK, tel. 44-114-222-3414, fax: 44-114-222-3458, email:
<a class="__cf_email__" href="http://www.cloudflare.com/email-protection" data-cfemail="93e7bde4f2fffee0fff6ead3e0fbf6f5f5faf6fff7bdf2f0bde6f8bd">[email protected]<script type="text/javascript">
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The authors gratefully acknowledge helpful comments from Kathie Krumm,
William Martin, Lu Ding, Nattapong Thongpakde, Sethaput Suthiwart Narueput, and participants at
seminars held at the Institute for Southeast Asian Studies of the National University of Singapore, the
Thailand Development Research Institute in Bangkok, and the World Bank office in Jakarta.
2 This paper – a product of PREM, Economic Policy – was supported by a Regional and Network Research


Grant, Development Economics, World Bank.


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