Tài liệu How and Where Capital Account Liberalization Leads to Economic Growth

How and Where Capital Account Liberalization Leads to Economic Growth


Dennis P. Quinn
Professor
McDonough School of Business
Georgetown University
Washington, D.C. 20057
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Carla Inclan
Ernst & Young, LLP
Washington, D.C. 20036
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A. Maria Toyoda
Research Scholar
Institute for International Studies
Stanford University
Stanford, California
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© by the American Political Science Association. Prepared for Presentation at the 2001 Annual


APSA Convention, San Francisco, California. We thank the Georgetown University


McDonough School of Business and the National Science Foundation for their support (SBR-


9810410). Please direct comments to Dennis Quinn. (30 August 2001)
ABSTRACT


We utilize an empirical model of growth as a platform for examining the effects


of capital account liberalization on growth. While we test for the direct effects of liberalization,


we are equally interested in another facet of liberalization: sequencing. We ask what prior


political, social, or economic conditions were required for capital account liberalization to have


led to subsequent growth. Our key independent variable is a measure of capital account


openness that comes in the form of five-year time-series, cross-sectional observations for 80


nations, 1950 (or independence) to 1997. Our focus is on change indicators of liberalization, as


we argue that level indicators of government policies in political economic research are generally


too imprecisely specified to exclude the influence of other collinear political economic variables.


We focus not simply on the economic preconditions for beneficial liberalizations, but the


political and social preconditions as well. We find that capital account liberalization has a robust


and direct effect on subsequent economic growth in most countries. Capital account


liberalization does not, however, lead to higher growth in emerging market democracies that


have weak welfare states. We conclude that policymakers in emerging market democracies have


ample reason to be cautious about full capital account liberalization.