Tài liệu Climate change as environmental and economic hazard - phần 2

3. Assessing natural catastrophe risk
3.1. Expert modelling of natural disaster risk
Assessments of future risk are inherently difficult
because of the uncertainties associated with the
impacts of climate change and socio-economic
development on future natural disaster risk
(IPCC, 2007). Considerable uncertainty and
ambiguity is associated with both the frequency
of a disaster occurring and the damage that it
will cause. Constructing different scenarios of
climate and socio-economic change and estimating
their influence on risk may be a useful first
step in assessing future risk. Statistical models
can be used to assess how frequencies and severities
of natural disaster or disaster damage relate to
variability in climate (e.g. Saunders and Lea,
2008; Schmidt et al., 2009). Extrapolations of
such historical relations under changes in
climate conditions may then provide insights
into future risks (e.g. Botzen et al., 2009b).