A METHODOLOGY FOR VALIDATION OF INTEGRATED SYSTEMS MODELS WITH AN APPLICATION TO COASTAL-ZONE MANAGEMENT IN SOUTH-WEST SULAWESI Contents Preface 1. Introduction 1.1. General introduction 1.2. Background 1.2.1. Systems approach 1.2.2. Integrated approach and Integrated Assessment 1.2.3. Integrated management and policy analysis 1.3. The problem of validating Integrated Systems Models 1.4. Research aim and research questions 1.5. Case study description 1.5.1. RaMCo 1.5.2. Study area 1.6. Outline of the thesis 2. Methodology 2.1. Introduction . 2.2. Literature review 2.3. Concept definition. 2.4. Conceptual framework of analysis 2.5. Procedure for validation 2.6. Conclusion 3. Validation of an integrated systems model for coastal-zone management using sensitivity and uncertainty analyses 3.1. Introduction . 3.2. Methodology 3.2.1. Basics for the method 3.2.2. The testing procedure 3.2.3. The sensitivity analysis 3.2.4. The elicitation of expert opinions 3.2.5. The uncertainty propagation 3.2.6. The validation tests 3.3. Results 3.3.1. Sensitivity analysis 3.3.2. Elicitation of expert opinions 8 Contents 3.3.3. Uncertainty analysis 3.3.4. Parameter-Verification test 3.3.5. Behaviour-Anomaly test 3.3.6. Policy-Sensitivity test 3.4. Discussion and conclusions 3.5. Appendices 4. A new approach to testing an integrated water systems model using qualitative scenarios 4.1. Introduction 4.2. Validation methodolog 4.2.1. Overview of the new approach 4.2.2. The detail procedure 4.3. The RaMCo model 4.3.1. Land-use/land-cover change model 4.3.2. Soil loss computation 4.3.3. Sediment yield 4.4. Formulation of scenarios for testing 4.4.1. Structuring scenarios 4.4.2. Developing qualitative scenarios for testing 4.5. Translation of qualitative scenarios 4.5.1. Fuzzification 4.5.2. Formulation of inference rules 4.5.3. Application of the inference rules 4.5.4. Calculation of the output value 4.5.5. Testing the consistency of the scenarios 4.6. Results 4.7. Discussion and conclusions 5. Validation of a fisheries model for coastal-zone management in Spermonde Archipelago using observed data 5.1. Introduction 5.2. Case study. 5.2.1. Fisheries in the Spermonde Archipelago, Southwest Sulawesi 5.2.2. Fisheries modelling in RaMCo 5.2.3. Data source and data processing 5.3. Validation methodology 5.3.1. Sate of the art 5.3.2. The proposed method 5.3.3. Fishery production models 5.4. Results 5.4.1. Calibration 5.4.2. The pattern test 5.4.3. The accuracy test 5.4.4. The extreme condition test 5.5. Discussion and conclusions Contents 6. Discussions, conclusions and recommendations 6.1. Introduction 6.2. Discussions 6.2.1. Innovative aspects 6.2.2. Generic applicability of the methodology 6.2.3. Limitations 6.3. Conclusions 6.3.1. Concept definition 6.3.2. Methodology 6.4. Recommendations 6.4.1. Other directions for the validation of integrated systems models 6.4.2. Proper use of integrated systems models References Symbols Acronyms and abbreviations Summary Samenvatting About the author
